🔴 LATEST (Sep 21): 12 consecutive days without Iranian strikes — longest lull since Feb 28; Iran denies active US talks but Oman-UAE framework still on the table; Brent holds near $102/b (Reports, Sep 21) ◆ 🕊️ Sep 18: Iran FM Araghchi says Hormuz will not reopen until Washington eases sanctions & pays reparations — Brent rises >1% on stalled talks after deal optimism (Al Jazeera, Sep 18) ◆ ⚖️ Sep 17: UN fact-finding mission says US committed war crimes in two strikes killing ~120 schoolchildren at Minab and 22 civilians at Lamerd; White House rejects findings (Reports, Sep 17) ◆ 🇨🇳 Sep 16: China's Wang Yi pledges cooperation with Iran; urges Hormuz opening "at an early date" — Aramco says East–West pipeline capacity to be "substantially restored within days" (GlobalSecurity, Sep 16) ◆ 🛢️ Sep 16: Saudi Arabia moved 2.8 mb/d through Hormuz in latest tracking period — up from 700k b/d in August — as Brent fell to $102.41 on three consecutive sessions of losses (Reports, Sep 16) ◆ 🤝 Sep 13: Iran formally unveils Oman-backed temporary shipping lane plan to Gulf states after senior UAE–Iran meeting — conditions include no US naval presence in the agreed corridor (Bloomberg, Sep 13) ◆ 🇰🇷 Sep 17: South Korea's foreign minister heads to Washington to discuss a possible troop deployment to the Strait of Hormuz — first non-Western nation to weigh a military role (Reports, Sep 17) ◆ 📊 Sep 15: Energy Sec. Wright says Hormuz throughput is averaging ~11M bbl/day vs ~18M pre-war; independent trackers show just 8 vessel transits (~9% of the 85/day baseline) despite VP Vance's ">50% capacity" claim (EIA / IMF PortWatch, Sep 15) ◆ 🗣️ Sep 15: Trump tells reporters the US is "open" to an Iran deal — a shift from Sec. Rubio's Aug 18 "that ship has sailed" line; US diesel tops $6/gallon for the first time on record (Reports, Sep 15) ◆ ⚓ Sep 12: Houthis capture Mokha, completing control of Yemen's Red Sea coast and adding leverage over the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint (Reports, Sep 12) ◆ 🛢️ Sep 11: Saudi Arabia shuts its East–West pipeline — the main Red Sea bypass around Hormuz — after a drone attack from Iraq sets it ablaze (CNBC / CNN / Al Jazeera, Sep 11) ◆ 💥 Sep 5–8: First direct Iranian missile attack on a US carrier group; US sinks tanker M/T Kylo and disables four more near Kharg Island under a new "tanker-for-tanker" doctrine (Reports, Sep 5–8) ◆ 💹 Sep 9: Brent tops $100/bbl again for the first time since Jul 24, as CENTCOM denies Iranian claims of hits on US destroyers (Reports, Sep 9) ◆ 🏭 OPEC MOMR (Aug data): Saudi output collapsed to 6.24 mb/d in August — lowest since 1990 — on Houthi Red Sea strikes; Iraq gained share on aggressive pricing; Iran fell to its lowest since 2020 (OPEC MOMR, Sep 2026) ◆ 🕊️ Aug 12: Second Versailles MOU signed 165 days after the closure — implementation stalled fast; strait ran at ~1% of pre-war baseline by Aug 17 (Reports, Aug 12–17) ◆ ⚔️ Aug 24: Treasury's "Operation Economic Outcast" sanctions 60+ Iranian entities and vessels; Chinese imports of Iranian crude fall to 534,000 b/d from 1.4M in 2025 (Treasury, Aug 24) ◆ 🚢 Aug 31: Saudi supertanker Sidr struck near Oman's Musandam Peninsula, killing two crew — one of several tanker attacks in the crisis's sixth month (Reports, Aug 31) ◆ 📉 IEA OMR Sep 2026: world oil supply now seen averaging 100.7 mb/d in 2026, down 5.7 mb/d y/y; inventories have drawn 507 million barrels since the war began, 95 million in August alone (IEA OMR, Sep 2026) ◆ ⛽ EIA STEO Sep 2026: Brent to avg $90/b in 2H26; inventory draws 3.9 mb/d Q2, 3.0 mb/d Q3, 1.7 mb/d Q4; Middle East shut-ins 5.7 mb/d in Q4; full recovery not until 2Q27 (EIA STEO, Sep 2026) ◆ 🌍 Combined Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab & East–West pipeline disruptions now estimated at ~39% of global oil trade and ~31% of global shipments (crisis-tracker aggregation, Sep 2026) ◆ 💀 Pentagon confirms 18 US service members killed and 767 wounded since the war began Feb 28 (DoD, Sep 3) ◆ 🔴 LATEST (Sep 21): 12 consecutive days without Iranian strikes — longest lull since Feb 28; Iran denies active US talks but Oman-UAE framework still on the table; Brent holds near $102/b (Reports, Sep 21) ◆ 🕊️ Sep 18: Iran FM Araghchi says Hormuz will not reopen until Washington eases sanctions & pays reparations — Brent rises >1% on stalled talks after deal optimism (Al Jazeera, Sep 18) ◆ ⚖️ Sep 17: UN fact-finding mission says US committed war crimes in two strikes killing ~120 schoolchildren at Minab and 22 civilians at Lamerd; White House rejects findings (Reports, Sep 17) ◆ 🇨🇳 Sep 16: China's Wang Yi pledges cooperation with Iran; urges Hormuz opening "at an early date" — Aramco says East–West pipeline capacity to be "substantially restored within days" (GlobalSecurity, Sep 16) ◆ 🛢️ Sep 16: Saudi Arabia moved 2.8 mb/d through Hormuz in latest tracking period — up from 700k b/d in August — as Brent fell to $102.41 on three consecutive sessions of losses (Reports, Sep 16) ◆ 🤝 Sep 13: Iran formally unveils Oman-backed temporary shipping lane plan to Gulf states after senior UAE–Iran meeting — conditions include no US naval presence in the agreed corridor (Bloomberg, Sep 13) ◆ 🗣️ Sep 15: Trump tells reporters the US is "open" to an Iran deal — a shift from Sec. Rubio's Aug 18 "that ship has sailed" line; US diesel tops $6/gallon for the first time on record (Reports, Sep 15) ◆ ⚓ Sep 12: Houthis capture Mokha, completing control of Yemen's Red Sea coast and adding leverage over the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint (Reports, Sep 12) ◆ 🛢️ Sep 11: Saudi Arabia shuts its East–West pipeline — the main Red Sea bypass around Hormuz — after a drone attack from Iraq sets it ablaze (CNBC / CNN / Al Jazeera, Sep 11) ◆ 💥 Sep 5–8: First direct Iranian missile attack on a US carrier group; US sinks tanker M/T Kylo and disables four more near Kharg Island under a new "tanker-for-tanker" doctrine (Reports, Sep 5–8) ◆ 💹 Sep 9: Brent tops $100/bbl again for the first time since Jul 24, as CENTCOM denies Iranian claims of hits on US destroyers (Reports, Sep 9) ◆ 🏭 OPEC MOMR (Aug data): Saudi output collapsed to 6.24 mb/d in August — lowest since 1990 — on Houthi Red Sea strikes; Iraq gained share on aggressive pricing; Iran fell to its lowest since 2020 (OPEC MOMR, Sep 2026) ◆ 🕊️ Aug 12: Second Versailles MOU signed 165 days after the closure — implementation stalled fast; strait ran at ~1% of pre-war baseline by Aug 17 (Reports, Aug 12–17) ◆ ⚔️ Aug 24: Treasury's "Operation Economic Outcast" sanctions 60+ Iranian entities and vessels; Chinese imports of Iranian crude fall to 534,000 b/d from 1.4M in 2025 (Treasury, Aug 24) ◆ 🚢 Aug 31: Saudi supertanker Sidr struck near Oman's Musandam Peninsula, killing two crew — one of several tanker attacks in the crisis's sixth month (Reports, Aug 31) ◆ 📉 IEA OMR Sep 2026: world oil supply now seen averaging 100.7 mb/d in 2026, down 5.7 mb/d y/y; inventories have drawn 507 million barrels since the war began, 95 million in August alone (IEA OMR, Sep 2026) ◆ ⛽ EIA STEO Sep 2026: market tightens further into Q3 — deficit revised to 2.96 mb/d before an easing seen in 2027 as new supply comes online (EIA STEO, Sep 2026) ◆ 🌍 Combined Hormuz, Bab al-Mandab & East–West pipeline disruptions now estimated at ~39% of global oil trade and ~31% of global shipments (crisis-tracker aggregation, Sep 2026) ◆ 💀 Pentagon confirms 18 US service members killed and 767 wounded since the war began Feb 28 (DoD, Sep 3) ◆